As the next iPhone looms with a rumored (read: likely inaccurate) September 21 release date, a new ChangeWave survey reveals that interest in buying the device is off the charts as demand “easily dwarfs the advance demand of any previous iPhone”. Perhaps analyst Gene Munster was right to call the iPhone 5 “the mother of all upgrades”.

The stats for planned smartphone purchases also show a much higher pre-release iPhone 5 demand compared to the nine-month-old iPhone 4S. Data confirms what we’ve suspected all along, that people want Apple’s next iPhone badly.

Let’s not forget the iPhone 5 will be the first iPhone model to be released following Steve Jobs’ passing on October 5 of last year, so it’s understandable that people attach emotional value to what will probably go down in Apple’s history as the last iPhone model developed with Steve’s input…

Research firm ChangeWave, a division of 451 Research, polled 4,042 consumers between June 18-25. Respondents were asked to express their likeliness to purchase a Galaxy S III from Samsung versus an upcoming sixth-generation iPhone.

According to a blog post, Samsung and Apple continue to dominate planned smartphone purchases.

Specifically, with 14 percent Very Likely and 17 percent Somewhat Likely to purchase the next iPhone when it becomes available, the device already commands higher demand than the iPhone 4S did when ChangeWave conducted a similar survey in October 2011. Back then, 10 percent were Very Likely and 11.5 percent were Somewhat Likely to get an iPhone 4S.

ChangeWave summed it up nicely:

The biggest finding of the survey is the unprecedented level of advanced demand for the next generation Apple iPhone (i.e., the ‘iPhone 5’) — which based on these survey numbers easily dwarfs the advance demand of any previous iPhone launch.

Another quote, via Fortune:

The huge wave of pent-up demand for the coming iPhone launch has important implications for the rest of the industry – and puts a number of second tier smart phone manufacturers at increased risk of coming in below plan for the year.

In contrast to Apple and Samsung, demand for Motorola (4%; down 2-pts) and HTC (3%; unchanged) remains sluggish, while RIM (2%; unchanged) is stuck at its all-time low.

In a positive finding for Nokia (2%), it’s seeing a slight uptick in consumer smart phone buying. While it’s only a 1-pt increase over March, it remains a hopeful sign for their new Lumia device as well as their strategic partnership with Microsoft.

This table compares demand for the yet-to-be-released iPhone 5 versus last year’s demand for the iPhone 4S.

Samsung with its Galaxy S III is second only to Apple, with two percent Very Likely and seven percent Somewhat Likely to get one. These numbers represent a six percentage points increase since March and are four times higher for planned Samsung smartphone purchases over the past three quarters.

Samsung just announced that it sold ten million Galaxy S III shipments in 55 days since its release. The handset saw more than nine million pre-orders from a hundred carriers, making it the fastest-selling gadget in history.

The iPhone 4S, which sold four million units (pre-orders included) during its launch weekend is considered the most successful smartphone release in Apple’s history.

Of course, sample size leaves a lot to be desired and the fact that 88 percent of respondents were from the United States may have further skewed the results. Nonetheless, the numbers do indicate buying patterns and trends and as such are indicative of the smartphone market.

Are you planning on buying the next iPhone, the S III be damned?

  • S III has no match for iPhone… iPhone rules..

  • S III has no match for iPhone, Can’t wait for iPhone 5 release

  • @dongiuj

    I’m waiting for the next iphone but if it doesn’t impress me then i’m grabbing the S III.
    My friend’s got an S III and it runs nice and smooth plus seen that i’m in japan we get free TV and more RAM.

  • Dan

    I have an iPhone 4, so as soon as the iPhone 5 is jailbroken, I will be buying it

  • iPhone the best there is. The there was & the best there will be …. I can’t wait for the iPhone 5!!!

  • YujinNY

    I predict a very slow and under performing quarter for apple cause everyone is waiting for the iPhone 5, sure the stock will suffer tomorrow, but it will make up for lost revenue once the next iPhone launches…this happens every year and unless apple manage to persuade many Chinese to buy the 4S. We should see a drop in their revenue/ market share…just for a few weeks though.

    • Kurt Lewis

      they won’t get as many sales…some companies are not allowing upgrades after just 1 year. they will make people fulfill their 2 year contract. that’s going to play big in the sales figure of this phone this year.

  • twited21

    I’m defiantly in the unlikely category
    I love my ip4 to much

  • Of course, I’ll buy the new iPhone! It’s the best mobile since ever! But what will happen with Samsung after the release… Well idk :/ Probably an S4 release, and this Story will repeat itself in upcoming years, unless they do something else..

  • Jose Cheong

    Please don’t just leave comments like S3 is no match for iPhone (ignorance). I have both a S3 and a iPhone 4s. I use the S3 so much more than the iPhone. iOS has so many restrictions its not even funny.
    Can the iPhone do this? imagine a just for a sec you can just load a ftp app and it shares your whole phone on your network as a ftp address and its just like another usb drive where you can copy and paste / save / open files directly on. Or ability to share via bluetooth or mail or whatever app any files out. Or ability to turn on foxfi (wifi share) the WHOLE DAY and not eat away at the battery. But meh face it battery cost less than USD10; just open the cover and swap it and bam 100% battery again. All this and yet the S3 is still slimmer than my 4s. Then there’s the ability to change WHATEVER keyboard you like (swiftkey is light years ahead of iOS keyboard). Plug in the USB cord and directly copy files in and out of the device with 64GB of micro SD class 10. Dozens of custom roms to suit your needs and themes glore. Or if you don’t like the stupid launcher, change to another one on the market (Don’t even mention Winterboard, try to compare that to say Apex or Launcher Pro or even Go launcher; its like a modern age man and a caveman). My 4s is JB and installed tonns of cydia mods already but it can’t do half the stuff that I mentioned.

    I also have in the past a iphone 3gs, 4, ipad 1, itouch 2g. I have used iOS in the past extensively. I only started my first android on Galaxy Note ICS. So my time with iOS is years in comparison to Android; yet Android is so much more useful in terms of work and personal use. With that being said I would probably buy a iPhone 5 (IF ONLY it can be JB), just to support the past tradition I suppose. However, I see no advantage whatsoever.

    I still remember showing my so called jb iPhone 4s to my friends in the party how there’s the cool infinitydock with like 5 buttons on the bottom or winterboard where I changed theme. Or my iAcces keyboard that could type and write in chinese far better than the stock iPhone. Then my friend pulls out his Galaxy Note and showed me the apex launcher 5×5 and has collection of keyboards all free and on stock rom. I surely felt dumb. Small monitor, bad battery life, bad keyboard, inability to download mp3 directly into the phone, inability to use the phone as a usb drive etc etc etc.

    You are free to like the iOS just no comments like S III no match for iphone zzz. Whats no match? A locked down OS that can’t really be modded to suit the needs of everyone until it is JB? Even after JB it only unlocks small tweaks. Most of the stuff I mentioned about the Android can be done on stock rom. You don’t even need to root the device.

    Go out to the local future shop or best buy. Pickup a S3 and try it before commenting on another OS. If you don’t like it just return it.

    • Kurt Lewis

      I’m almost ashamed to have an iphone now. good read. thanks for sharing~ btw, I’m the one who gave you that 1 thumbs up

    • Irfan Tarique

      Who the hell would read all of that? Better yet, what kind of person has the time to right all of that….??? He probably works for Samsung lol

  • Edwin Solorzano

    stop calling it iphone 5 it’s gonna be called The new iphone or iphone 6.
    iphone 1st gen
    iphone 3g 2nd gen
    iphone 3gs 3rd gen
    iphone 4 4th gen
    iphone 4s 5th gen
    iphone (TBA) 6th gen

  • just in time

    I have an iPhone and a Samsung Galaxy Note.
    iPhone just isn’t that good, it is like putting a Boa constrictor around your neck as far as functionality goes.You just are restricted in everything you do on it.
    All Apple really is is a marketing machine with average so so products and the way people take to their overpriced gear shows it works.

  • just in time

    Apple = Marketing with average restrictive good looking product
    Samsung/Anroid = the better choice for everyday personal and business use.
    I have both so this is from experience.