Analyst predicts Apple moving from tech titan to dinosaur within a year

By , Oct 29, 2012

Psst. I’ve got a tip for ya: Apple’s going down. Yep, the iPhone maker is set to become a tech dinosaur about a year from now, according to one analyst. I’d blame the whole thing on Hurricane Sandy, but the analyst opinion was released last week, just after Apple announced lower-than-expected profit margins. “Apple’s time to turn from tech titan into a dinosaur will come, but we still think that we are at least a year away”, Berenberg Bank analyst Adnaan Ahmad recently told investors, according to Daring Fireball and cited by Fortune…

What prompted this dire prediction? Well, according to Fortune it all began with Apple announcing last week that it expected a 36 percent gross margin in the first quarter of fiscal 2013. Putting a bow on it all is Ahmad’s belief that once Apple signs a deal with China Mobile (likely halfway through next year) the gravy train is over for the Cupertino, California company.

According to the analyst, consumers in their late teens are a big market for the iPhone. While Samsung smartphones have an average selling price of $150, the iPhone is $636 – unless you want an Apple handset that’s a year or two old.

“So for Apple to gain wider share of the smartphone market, it will need to offer ‘customised’ products at lower price points, writes the analyst. In other words, a prepaid iPhone.

What happens if Apple opts to continue on its merry way?

“If Apple decides not to have customized lower-end iPhones, then growth will well and truly tap out once the China Mobile deal is signed”, he writes. Ahmad believes dealing with shrinking growth will be Apple’s largest worry, unless Samsung decides to spark a price war.

The need for Apple to provide a low-cost option is not new. The high cost of ownership has already cost Apple market share in emerging markets like India, where the iPhone 5 arrives this Friday.

Neither is concern that Apple may out-price the teen market – particularly if it discontinues the iPod touch, as has been reported. What’s new is that there is a now a line in the sand: a 2013 China Mobile deal.

As the author writes, Berenberg Bank has a historical perspective on its side, operating since 1590. However, the analyst exhibits a bit of bipolar financial wisdom. Ahmad answers the question of which Apple suppliers he would recommend: none. Then he recommends Apple, Samsung and ARM, “all of which we rate as Buys”.

Of course, this all depends on Apple being like a leaf in a stream, its direction out of its control. However, Apple has continually shown it is able to shape markets (remember when tablets were a has-been technical failure?) as well as creating new markets for products people didn’t know they desperately needed.

Don’t cry for Apple just yet.

What do you think?

Has Apple reached the end of the line?

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  • http://twitter.com/Ali4773 Muhammad Ali

    i am smiling .

  • CollegiateLad

    Lol… No need to cry. Apple doesn’t need to join the race to the bottom.

  • http://www.facebook.com/dietermarkus Markus Hudobnik

    I’m kind of excited to see apple go down. Hah. But that means they will hopefully FINALLY give in and actually make better products (in terms of features, price, and software. The device quality and everything else is perfect)

    • http://www.facebook.com/people/Matthew-Childs/1067107105 Matthew Childs

      so essentially you want diamond quality for cubic zirconia prices. typical entitled attitude. you get what you pay for in life. if you want bargain prices then go to android and their plasticy cheap products.

      • http://www.facebook.com/dietermarkus Markus Hudobnik

        Where did I say anything about build quality being bad? Oh I didn’t. Lol. I mean they need to chill with some prices. My main thing is the storage. $100 bump to get more storage? Should be $50 especially when you can’t add In any later

      • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000064009391 Matt Summers

        It would be fine if they offered real diamonds lol People like you are the reason Apple has more money than the US Government. Apple is not as great as they claim to be. If they offered more in a computer for what the customer actually wants. Come on $1700 for a 13″ Retina MacBook Pro with standard specs? It cost them $200 to make by sweat shops in China. Forget you man thats to much of a mark up. But people buy it, stupid people with more money than what they know what to do with. If they didn’t pay those prices it would force Apple to drive down the costs. Damn rich and poorly budgeting people mess it up for a lot of people.

  • Johnathan Jennings

    I’ve been saying 2013 is the last year of apple in the lead. Looks like I’m right(:
    Android here I come!

    • http://twitter.com/Chindavon Chindavon

      Good riddens then. I’m sure the grass is browner on the other side.

    • http://www.facebook.com/people/Matthew-Childs/1067107105 Matthew Childs

      LOL yes 1 random nobody “analyst” pulls shit out of his ass and that makes you right? LOL what a fool.

      • Johnathan Jennings

        Fight me then.

      • Johnny

        God dude you’re annoying. Shut up

  • Ijohnson123

    I think this is BS to be honest, Apple sell millions of phones every year and that is not stopping soon.

    • CollegiateLad

      Of course it’s BS. It gets the clicks though. I remember when the analyst predicted the iPhone wouldnt sell and the iPad would be a bust – yes, the same iPad that’s surpassed 100 million units sold( not shipped). Apple’s forecast for 2013: 102 million iPads and 194 million iPhones. That’s 2013 alone.

      • Ijohnson123

        Brilliant. Love Apple, wonderful products.

      • Thorasgard

        Can’t anybody read. “… at least a year away.” Not “within a year” as the headline states. Sorry Ed but I am pulling the BS card on you here. Sloppy, very sloppy.

        “…at least a year away” means nothing. Some time between a year from now and infinity. Brilliant prediction. Amazing analysis.

        Ed and Ahmed both need give up their day jobs and go back to school. Call me at least a year from now and we will see if you both have gained some competence.

    • http://www.facebook.com/joe.jonsen Joe Jonsen

      yeah apple is poring and stale but there is no one anywhere close to them to cause a shift at all..

      • Ijohnson123

        I disagree with the stale part, it does all i need and more. I’m happy.

      • http://twitter.com/Pitchy Pitchy

        iOS is VERY STALE now. There is nothing new and exciting with it. The things they have added with iOS 5 and 6 are just great things from Android and Cydia.

        Without jailbreaking, iOS doesn’t seem to have changed much since it first came out… thus making it stale.

      • Ijohnson123

        Stale for you, not stale for me. Whatever the user feels :)

      • http://twitter.com/Pitchy Pitchy

        So you guys are happy with nothing but a basic app launcher that hasn’t changed since it’s inception?

        Windows 8 is completely different than any version of Windows on the desktop. It’s a huge leap from XP/Vista. Other than the Start Menu going over to the live tiles like in WP7, it feels a lot like Windows 7. But the live tiles and apps make it a completely different experience.

        If you guys are still happy with just basic static icons to open apps, then that’s great for you. But for me, I want more out of my phone. Little things about iOS bother me. For instance, the Weather app icon is always 73° and sunny. It should be dynamic to display the current weather. The Calendar app changes based on the day… so why can’t the Weather app? I shouldn’t have to jailbreak my phone just to do something so simple and common sense.

        I know I am in the minority when it comes to widgets on the iPhone, but I love things like SBSettings, Jukebox. The other thing that defies common sense is the keyboard is ALWAYS IN CAPS LOCK. Again, I shouldn’t have jailbreak just for the keyboard to shift characters based on selection of Shift/CAPS.

        I for one love Dahsboard X, Intellscreen X, and InfiniFolder to fix the shortcomings of iOS. Again, you shouldn’t have to jailbreak your phone just to do simple common sense things… but with iOS you do.

      • Douglas Lazzaro

        ^^^^^couldnt have been said better.. i love ios bc the functionality is almost flawless, but how there cant b any simple interface improvements like the 1s u just mentioned in 5 years is crazy.. n while i dont mind jailbreaking, the bottom line is, the phone just doesnt run right like that, n u shouldnt hafta jailbreak 2 have common sense things like live icons

      • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000064009391 Matt Summers

        Also with the messages app why isn’t there a quick reply by now, I mean come on? Your right it is stale. I like the functionality of iOS but really it is the simple things that Apple doesn’t incorporate into iOS like you said. It needs a UI Revamp. Weather should display the current temp or no temp at all with the stock icon. I Jailbreak for Infinifolders also, why are we limited to only a certain amount of icons? Thats just stupid. And the dock for instance why only 4 icons? I know when I drag an icon to my dock on OS the icons get smaller to incorporate the new icon, why cant iOS do this? I completely agree with everything you said. If Apple came out with a Theme Store for instance and controlled it like how they do Apps and only allow certain themes in the store, it would be a hit. I guarantee it. Have a certain criteria for what has to be included into a theme, not just crap icons, but the basic apps and UI and icons. I can bet money that there would be a ton of people that wouldn’t jailbreak their iPhones if they build all these things mentioned into iOS Stock. That is how they can overcome Jailbreaking, not by trying to fix holes in security flaws but to offer what Jailbreaking does and stock iOS doesn’t! You know they have to read these blogs to get ideas for what people want, but they do it only to benefit themselves not its customer! And for all the people “happy” about the cost of Apple products and always back EVERYTHING they do, is BS. Wouldn’t it be nice if we could by the new iPhone or MacBook Pro for half of what they charge? They can afford it, but its greed, look how they do each product. They hold off on simple features until the next update only so they can milk more money out of people. You know why, its because they can and they know that dumb asses fall for it every time. If we didn’t run out and make them the billionaires they are by buying each updated product. It would force them to include them in the first release and be challenged to incorporate true intuitive thinking into their products not just little quirks that have been around for years already and they claim they invented it. BullShit People look at it for what it is and not about what they offer, but what they don’t offer!

      • http://twitter.com/Pitchy Pitchy

        How right you are.

        There are tons of people who jailbreak just to accomplish simple tasks like the ones we have mentioned. Infinifolders is fantastic. The 12 icon limit is annoying, that means I would need several folders called Games, Photography, Utilities etc… With Infinifolders, I dropped my iPhone down to 3 pages, with the second page utilizing Infinifolder.

        Themes would be fantastic. There is absolutely no customization of iOS other than wallpaper and apparently there are a lot of people here who seem to think that’s enough. Not me… I love Bytafont and Color Keyboard to change up system fonts and get a cooler looking keyboard. Barrel for animated page changes. PerPage with Winterboard to do things like themes. I for one installed HTC Weather on my main page… I love it. My 3rd page has RSS feeds and Jukebox so I can just get some tech updates while playing Pandora and controlling it with Jukebox.

        Then silly things like changing my AT&T icon to a Space Invader icon.

        As you said, quick reply to text messages seems so logical, but Apple doesn’t do that, and I can’t remember which tweak I installed allows for that but it has come in super handy.

        People who are happy with the way iOS is out of the box have never used jailbreak tweaks or really played with Android, WP7, Symbian or WebOS to see what is really out there and what the iPhone could and should be capable of. It’s like putting a Ferrari engine in a VW Jetta and only allowing it to do about 80mph.

      • http://twitter.com/Karolynaz Karolynaz

        There is quick reply for messages, maybe you only didn’t find. On the lock screen – just slide on message and you will be replying.

        BTW I think IOS is more informative than Windows Phone. Just learn how to use notification center, and put more stuff on lock screen. For example I can see missed calls, sms, reminders, calendars and etc. on my lockscreen. I don’t need to unlock my phone to see everything. And if I do, I just open notification center and you have everything in one place. And with Metro – you have to up and down to look for everything and some times you miss updated or something.

      • Kurt

        windows 8 will take over. windows phone 8 has the best mobile OS. and now with developers flocking to it, it will be the most popular in no time

      • http://twitter.com/Pitchy Pitchy

        I want to see WP7&8 as well as Android and iOS succeed. I want to see all 3 do wonderful things. I don’t want to see only iOS dominate because it is competition that forces innovation.

      • Kurt

        i wish more people were like you on this site

      • http://twitter.com/Pitchy Pitchy

        Thanks :)

      • http://twitter.com/Karolynaz Karolynaz

        @kurt178:disqus : I don’t think so. You even can’t change IP address manually for Wifi. There is only new UI, which is fun, but after that – there is nothing. It’s not like you can create music, edit videos, edit autocad files on anything else than iPhone. Android and Windows Phone is still like 5-7 years away from Apple.

        And for new UI – there is a lot of people who likes iOS UI. There is nothing wrong, it’s look nice, it have simplicity and etc. The only problem maybe is, that if you had your first iPhone in 2007, it’s kind of boring to look to the same UI for 5 years. Remember – before we changed phones every year or so, and every new phone, had a new OS. Windows Phone is only now looks „new & cool“. But after one year – when you see the same thing on a desktop and in your phone screen – you will be bored too.

      • http://www.facebook.com/people/Matthew-Childs/1067107105 Matthew Childs

        in YOUR opinion it is stale..that’s not the case for everyone. i’ve been using iOS since june 29, 2007 and i’m fine with it. i know where everything is, i know how everything works. why do we need to completely change a UI every year? this has been a problem for Microsoft with windows. vista came out and people bitched because things looked different, there were new ways to do things that left people who knew how to do those things with the prior version in the dark, having to learn a new way to do things. same thing now with windows 8. maybe YOUR ADD requires revamped UI every other week but consistency is better. knowing where things are and how they work is more intuitive and more productive.

      • http://twitter.com/Pitchy Pitchy

        Wow, Microsoft can’t win. They kept XP for a long time and people complained that they didn’t change or update soon enough like the almighty Apple. So They sped up their intervals between versions and now that means I have ADD? Interest. I guess that’s why I constantly update my Ubuntu box twice a year with each version they push out. I also update to every version of OS X. woooohooo ADD again. Wonder why Apple has such a fast release cycle now on it’s updates? Leopard, Snow Leopard, Lion, Mountain Lion… those were pushed fairly quickly and they have made some big changes… especially with Mountain Lion making it more like iOS than OS X.

        Again… I feel you shouldn’t have to jailbreak your phone to do such simple things, but you do. OMG squirrel. Sorry, that was my ADD.

      • http://www.unitedworx.com Paris Paraskeva

        MS is stale, Google is stale, apple is on fire!
        In a year they refresh the complete product line, they refresh their mobile os and their desktop os and you call that stale?

      • 4p0c4lyps3

        Lol, rite. And it’s pretty funny b/c tht seems to be more than enough for millions. I wldnt trade it.

      • http://twitter.com/Pitchy Pitchy

        Millions also jailbreak their iPhone. you should check out what’s out there in Cydia and see just how far you can extend your iPhone. Then you might change your mind.

    • http://www.facebook.com/antman217 Anthony Antunez

      I know right? And even if they do turn into a dinosaur I wouldn’t mind because dinosaurs are f*cking awesome LOL

      • Ijohnson123

        Haha yes!

  • http://twitter.com/richphoto Richard Brown Photo

    Never. however the world ends soon

  • Supafly_Boy

    And just think, someone is actually paying this clown to think up this crap!

  • LAGISSUEZ

    That analyst guy, yeah. What a $&@#ing idiot. I wanna save this article and email it back to you guys here at idb in TWO years. Why do you post this garbage, just to make me roll my eyes??

    • http://twitter.com/Karolynaz Karolynaz

      Yup :) This „analyst“ didn’t see economy recession in 2007 and dot com in 2000. But he “see” the end of Apple :)

      • LAGISSUEZ

        You’re a Moran too. Sorry that’s not nice but no really.

  • http://www.facebook.com/craig.wayman.7 Craig Wayman

    OK, yeah right!!! First off let me tell you the only arena Apple is beat in is the Tablet. The iPhone and Macs are still king. However Apple needs to figure out a way to make their iDevice owners more happy. Before it was with easy software to exploit and we were all happy with our jailbroken devices. Now it isn’t so easy anymore so we have to put up with Apple’s dictatorship on their devices which I am not too happy about. Apple has never had the best hardware on the market but they defiantly have the best operating systems on the market just need to give people more freedom with their devices like USB/micro SD ports on tablets. Flash support on devices etc. If they just did those simplet things they would come a longggggg way.

  • http://www.granniethegeek.com/ GrannieTheGeek

    Blah, blah, blah. And these same analysts predicted that the Apple Stores would be a bust. Like, that really happened. Go to any Mall and the only store packed to the rafters is the Apple Store. Give me a break. I may be old but I am not senile. :)

  • AB

    This is a consumerist capitalist world. Apple will survive. Even if Apple doubles the price, even if it makes their products never-ever-jailbreakable-and-unlockable, people will still buy their products. People want to show that they are on top; rich can afford, middle-class can manage and poor will always be wanting (and grab one at the first moment they can manage). Look at me, I never needed an Iphone, but bought one anyway, later terminated the contract, paid the fine and now have a locked phone (paperweight) that can not be unlocked through any means. People talk about numbers, but nobody has so far talked about the Iphones that have turned into paperweights because of Apple’s ‘unbreakable’ software and the Apple-carriers scam not to unlock the out-of-contract devices. Though I will never buy another apple product (unless it is really needed), people won’t stop buying them. Unless the world ends in December 2012, Apple will not end.

  • http://twitter.com/Chindavon Chindavon

    I’d like to see him bet all of his money on this one. Apple just doesn’t sell phones and tablets. Macs are taking over the pc world and not slowing down soon. For those who have not used one (I’m not talking about you people that have messed with it at Best Buy), you don’t really know how great it is compared to windows. Once you go Mac, you won’t ever go back.

  • http://www.eraser.org B. Braun

    To be honest, when Apple is not reinventing the Homescreen with more Live action like Windows Phone or Android they will loose the battle.

  • http://twitter.com/snakefeet86 jonathan helliwell

    i also worry about this im not sure i apple could possibly better themselfes any more i dont think too much about the price as i know what i buy thats apple will last and hold its worth. i see android getting better as they have but i cant help but think apple may have peaked? i hope not

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Bob-Forsberg/100001387343371 Bob Forsberg

    Comforting to know those analysts don’t have a say in my investment portfolio.

  • Coop1701

    I’m not trusting anyone named Ahmad with financial advice.

  • http://www.facebook.com/Joey.R.Thomas Joey Thomas

    Haha! Laughable.

  • http://twitter.com/lgasparjnr laszlo gaspar

    Apple won’t die out like blackberry. They will continue to be a big company but they will loose the buzz that they currently have.

  • http://twitter.com/lgasparjnr laszlo gaspar

    the magic of apple will fade away but not for a few years

  • http://twitter.com/khoobler Kyle Hoobler

    Completely agree , all apple did this year with the iPhone 5 is catch it up with other cheaper phones.

  • http://twitter.com/jaredgibbs Armed in the Villa

    For Christ’s sake. Haven’t these tech “gurus” been predicting Apple’s obsolescence since the 80′s? Kindly GTFOH already

  • http://twitter.com/El_Barto_01 El Barto

    Analyst use scare tactics to drive stocks down and buy cheap then sell high. Highly unethical but that is life and real in with all of them. Apple is being targeted more as analyst figure out that apple can be manipulated easily and now they have up their game specially when the “street” has outrageous expectations vs real ones that are based on facts and not done to disappoint investors with the intent to hurt a stock.

  • http://twitter.com/klouud Timothy Polumbo

    Really? Seriously? This is ridiculous. Every company experiences some ups and downs. This statement was obviously released to provoke knee jerk responses from each side.

  • Aleksander Azizi

    I really, truly, hope Apple is doing something MindBlowing next year, as it has been a while since we all went “Wooooooww, Thats new and totally unique!!”

    • Aleksander Azizi

      i liked the iPhone 5 tho, but who didn’t feel it was missing that extra Apple Magic?

  • http://twitter.com/decio_crytek Décio Costa Arruda

    I don’t think this is BS at all…. I think that it is starting to feel old and I think, even though I’m a Apple FANBOY4LIFE!, Android is just taking rish, and iOS will look the same for the next 10 years…

  • http://twitter.com/Nashafa Nathan

    i don’t think a company like Apple will last a LONG time, maybe its time has just come sooner (or later).

  • skychet

    …and cue officers leaving

  • Blake

    Thats why their stores are always freakishly packed. Unlike the Microsoft stores that beg people to come in…

  • http://www.facebook.com/CMak70 Chris McOmber

    Apple could sell a dried turd and people would buy it! I am pre-ordering my iTurd as we speak. This story is crap (no pun intended)!!

    • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000064009391 Matt Summers

      Lmao

  • Chaazaq

    That’s what happens when you get big an forget about the little people

    • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000064009391 Matt Summers

      Again Well Said!

  • Chaazaq

    Greedyieeeeee fuckin Companies

    • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000064009391 Matt Summers

      Well SAID!

  • Andreas

    How do i view comments? I’m on my iPhone 4

    • Andreas

      Twitter comments?0 ^

  • http://www.facebook.com/footfactory1 FootFactory John

    This is impressive i have iphone 5 and enjoying it that much

  • http://twitter.com/Gordidon Juan Espinosa

    I Just think that if they continue to do the same every year (Update the camera, the processor and the screen) and nothing else. No new physical feutures in their phones or for that matter no innovating stuff in the iOS, I think they will go down, maybe not in a year but maybe in 2 or 4 years.. I Love Apple but they have to change and do something really new. Don’t get me wrong, I have an iPhone 5 and I love the Camera, beautiful screen and how fast the phone is but I really think they need to do a little bit more and keep innovating like before.

  • http://www.facebook.com/masonicninja Michael Scott Allen

    Oh Jesus Christ, here we go again.

    Look, Apple is a Leviathan and it isn’t going anywhere. They are going to make some changes, and the writing is definitely on the wall right now that Jobs was truly the heart and soul of this company, but to predict their decline is biased and short-sighted at best.

    When 91% of the planet is using an iDevice, I’d say your take on this is so misguided as to be completely comical.

  • Justinfrederick

    lol… dinosaur; how old was this so called ‘analyst’ doing the analyzing anyway? Older generations have no say in tech advancement and growth. No offense, they just weren’t born into a world where the concepts already existed.

  • appleyard

    no matters,
    some time ago Apple pattent a iOS totally in 3D, may just they work on this in secret.

  • caaneo.com

    well thanks for these information i am on android but thinking to switch off