Predictably, shipping time estimates for iPhone X began slipping in a matter of first few minutes of preorders going live. New preorders for the device are scheduled to ship out in December as early customer demand remains, in Apple’s own words, “off the charts”.

To visualize when exactly delivery estimates for the anticipated OLED phone changed throughout the early hours, venture capitalist at Loup Ventures and former Apple analyst Gene Munster put together a pair of nice tables that you can see top of post and below.

Having checked iPhone X shipping estimates eight times since preorders kicked off at 12:01am today, the analyst views current lead times (5-6 weeks) as a sign that demand for the handset is trending more favorably than investor expectations.

“Previously, we had published that if lead times were below two weeks by Sunday, October 29, we would have viewed that as negative for initial iPhone X demand,” he said.

Notably, some customers in Europe are now seeing their order being prepared for shipment for November 3 launch day delivery. If your order status has changed to “preparing for shipment/dispatch,” your iPhone X should be shipped out over the next few days.

Munster doesn’t think the $999 starting price will be a deal breaker because consumers will take a “step function jump in what they’re willing to spend on an iPhone given most buy their phones on installment plans.”

For Apple’s fiscal 2018 year, Loup Ventures is expecting 238 million iPhone shipments, up nine percent year over year versus the Wall Street consensus of 242 million units.

All told, Munster & Co. are predicting iPhone X delivery times of 4-6 weeks in November versus the current 5-6 week estimate. Typically, it takes 2-3 months for a new iPhone to reach global supply-demand equilibrium, leading the analyst to predict that iPhone X supply will meet global demand sometime in the March quarter, or 3-4 months after launch.

When did you first see iPhone X deliveries slipping?

Speaking of which, has the status of your order changed to “preparing for shipment”?

  • Charlie

    The lead time changed to 5 to 6 weeks in certain places after 30 minutes of launching but it was still 2 to 3 weeks in the United Kingdom. You’ll still get 5 to 6 weeks even if you order now.

  • vbtwo31984

    I got my order in at 3:10 am and it was already at 2-3 weeks for T-Mobile 256gb both black and silver. I was refreshing both site and app since 3am, and when the site went up at 3:06 it already didn’t show Nov 3 delivery for me, but I did see it available for pickup on Nov 3 in a few NYC stores. By the time got to checkout, those were unavailable though.

  • chjode

    The Apple Store app didn’t even load the store until about 1205a (PDT) and there were all sorts of errors on attempting to checkout. My order went through by 1215a and was already showing 2-3 weeks (Nov 17-24). Granted, I expect those dates to firm up over the coming days.

  • SpideyRules

    So glad the carriers sites’ were having issues from the get go…I know AT&T was kicking people out even after the queue, and T-Mobile horror stories are floating around…

    • Vinnie Bones

      TMO was so effed-up! I tried to log in to from my laptop (which ive been doing for years) and it asked me to RESET my password.. couldn’t gotten it on the release date, instead I was set back 2-3 weeks. That was really messed up.

      • Silently Observing

        I called to jump on Demand my iPhone 7 Plus with T-Mobile and got it place immediately. I think calling the carrier was probably the best move in retrospect. My T-Mobile deliever date is November 2-3, but my unlocked one through the Apple store was November 10-17. I completed the online Apple Store one before my wife completed the telephone call and the carrier one is showing to be here on launch and Apple is a week to two weeks out. Weird.

      • The carrier is always faster than Apple itself.

      • Silently Observing

        Didn’t know that. Seems backward to me. Thanks for the info.

      • Julio Hernandez

        I ordered my space gray 256GB about 15 minutes in when the Apple Store app decided to open up and I got 2-3 weeks shipping time. Called around 3am PST to T-Mobile to check on shipping times and got an estimate of 11/3-11/10 2-3 hours after pre-orders went live and I’m still surprised by that. But T-Mobile site was super messed up, my partner accidentally ordered 2 through their website.

  • BetoArpe

    I got the confirmation mail at 3:04 ET for T-mobile 256 Gb Space Gray and the delivery date is between November 10-17. I think that model never had a Nov 3 delivery date. Can someone share if they have the same issue??

    • Silently Observing

      I’m in agreement. I got the 64gb space gray T-Mobile one from the Apple Store online. Mine was place complete at 1:04am MST, so literally within 3 minutes and I got the same date range. Very strange.

  • Silently Observing

    My order was totally completed for the T-Mobile variant via the Apple website at 1:04am MST and has said November 10-17 since the beginning. I haven’t seen anyone who got a sooner date from the Apple store. Seems like all of the November 3rd estimates are carrier orders. It literally took a total of 3 minutes for me to complete the order. I actually thought November 10-17 was a place holder and it would be updated to launch because I had the order in so fast…

    • Blake Royer

      Nope I got a November 3 delivery from Apple Store

      • Silently Observing

        T-Mobile variant? When did your order complete? Country?

    • bigkev943

      I did mine is set for delivery 11-3 and the status changed from order placed, to processing this morning at 9am central , to preparing for shipping 12pm central I am in texas. Got the 256gb Silver got in the store via the apple store app at 2:04am ordered from the my favorites paid in full using apple pay for the ATT version no payment plans for me.

    • Silently Observing

      “Delivers 03 Nov, 2017 by Standard Shipping…” Mine just updated. Good news for those buying the T-Mobile variant through Apple at full price.

    • techfreak23

      Umm everyone I was preordering with last night (there were 5 of us in California) got a Nov 3 ship date through Apple directly with the last of us getting their order placed by 12:09 PDT. Four AT&T models and one Verizon model.

  • pnh

    My Silver 64GB was originally Nov 10-17 and changed during the day today to Nov 3.

    Yesssssssss!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Past0rB

    Verizon actually took my order before 3:01 am EST.

    I was all done before 3:00 with a confirmation email so I decided to order another one in silver.

    Completed it by 3:03 am but the Verizon site began crashing some. Took 10 mins for 2nd confirmation email, but both say Nov 3 ship date.

    • Jerl Ryan

      Same here, got two from Verizon, both before 3am

  • techfreak23

    Placed my order by 12:07 PDT and received my confirmation by 12:08… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8191bfe5d244de6bba5ccb18c6abff9c55c3d3c6b435491c91ef9c72d93058e2.png

    The Apple Store app didn’t load until 12:05 and I was starting to worry a little