aapl july

At the time of this writing, Apple’s stock is hovering around $456 per share. While that’s still painfully lower than its peak of $702 back in September of last year, it’s a major improvement over the $398 per share low it hit last month. So what happened?

The truth is, APPL had a nice little July. After starting the month at $405, the stock spiked around the 23rd—the day it announced its ‘disappointing’ Q3 earnings—and has been on the rise since. But why? Are investors gaining confidence in Apple again?

For a little more context, iPhone sales in Q3 smashed Wall Street expectations—31.2 million vs. 27 million—but most other numbers were lower than investors would’ve liked. iPad sales were low, Mac sales were low, and overall growth was non-existent.

Apple store opening in Hong Kong

What I think happened though, or is happening, is that investors are starting get a little bit of their faith in the Cupertino company back. And I think this for a few reasons. For one, while Apple’s last quarter wasn’t a blockbuster, it also wasn’t a complete failure.

Because without a major product launch in 2013, and a handset and tablet nearing the end of their refresh cycles, Apple still managed to sell 30 million iPhones. It still managed to have a $30 billion quarter, and it still managed to add $7 billion to its cash pile.

That’s impressive. It shows sustainability, and it shows that Apple doesn’t need a new hit product every quarter in order to make money—a lot of money. These are things investors have been concerned about as the iPhone/iPad competition continues to heat up.

Budget iPhone (NowhereElse 001, blue)

But don’t worry though, the new products are coming. And this is the second reason why I think Apple’s stock is on the rise. Tim Cook has repeatedly said “Apple has amazing new hardware, software, and services coming this fall.” And the evidence backs that up.

Over the past few months, we’ve seen a number of leaks indicating things we might see in Q4 of this year. There’s been evidence of a redesigned iPad 5, an iPad mini with Retina display, a ‘budget iPhone,’ and a new flagship iPhone with a built-in fingerprint sensor.

And it’s those last two things that investors are really keeping an eye on, particularly the budget iPhone. Apple has very little marketshare in places where prepaid users outnumber contract users—China, India, etc. And a cheaper iPhone would quickly change that.

Add to that the frequent iWatch and iTV rumors, and the interesting things Apple is doing with vehicle integration, and you can see why folks on Wall Street are starting to get back on the Cupertino bandwagon. The $1M question is, how long will they stay on this time?

What’s your take on all of this?

  • kevin chang

    but the apple comunity have a bad july, we want jailbreak for ios 6.1.3/4 🙂

    • mav3rick

      This will be the best thing ever for some Jaibreak user as planning to stop the iOS clock at 6.1.x for all iDevices. Too used to enjoy the rich perfect attentive to the smallest details eye candy iOS skeuomorphism. Cannot downgrade to just blank screens everywhere on a retina display, childish icons and sketched thin lines soft buttons. Sadly there is no chance for a new evasi0n Jailbreak. They’re keeping the exploits for 7 as most of the users will just gulp apple’s new skittles Unicorn poop fluorescent blinding interface.

      • ✪ aidan harris ✪

        “apple’s new skittles Unicorn poop fluorescent blinding interface”

        I prefer the term gorgeous modern flat UI but whatever floats your boat 😉

      • mav3rick

        “Modern” if you’re said so repeatedly that this has to be modern. But “gorgeous” white screens all over on a retina display?!??

        Like said above at the end…

      • ✪ aidan harris ✪

        I suppose it depends on your interpretation of the word “modern”…

  • Alex Meza

    or!!!! they know something we don’t know and want to get stock at a low price so when the new products come out and stock goes up they sell at its peak!

  • Boss

    iwatch rumors

  • Dave Melges

    What happened, was big money sensed the bottom of the barrel and started buying back in. It has nothing to do with phones, or tablets, or refresh cycles…..it’s just a stock, and Apple, maybe more than any company in history, has always sold PERCEPTION.

    As a product line, Apple is in trouble…..the gloss is gone, the easy sales are over, there is ZERO domination in anything, and they don’t seem to have any surprises left up their sleeve.

    But as a money making company, even at their rate of decline, they’re fine for 3 or 4 more years, so buy in, watch it creep up, hope it gets to 550 and enjoy the dividends for a minute.

    But mark my words, if they don’t have a BRAND NEW PRODUCT BEFORE CHRISTMAS, get the hell back out, cause the next crash will be ugly.