Analyst warns Apple could be headed for rough two years

By , Feb 28, 2013

Apple Store Side logo San Francisco

If you thought Apple had already been through a rough period, just wait. That’s the message from one Wall Street analyst who predicts the iPhone maker is “facing a very rough two-year period.”

Although Apple’s chief executive Tim Cook spent Wednesday defending his company’s horde of cash, those concerns could evaporate as Apple spends billions to prop up slowing iPhone sales and works to improve demand in emerging markets.

Apple could see capital expenditures double, according to Jeffries’ analyst Peter Misek, forecasting billions in payments for supplier upgrades, emerging-market payment plans and expensive technology updates all while iPhone sales plunge…

According to Misek, “international iPhone sales are slowing dramatically.” The one bright spot may be places such as India, where smartphone adoption has plenty of potential growth, reports Fortune.

However, unlike China and elsewhere, India’s carriers don’t offer subsidies on handsets. The lack of subsidies coupled with India’s penchant for pre-paid cellular service means Apple will need to finance the purchase of iPhones – either through payment plans or by offering a handset subsidy directly to consumers. In either case, Apple’s cash will drop by $10 billion with another $40 “deferred,” claims Misek.

However, falling iPhone sales could make “a quick change more difficult,” the analyst warns.

iPhone 5 (three-up, profile, front, back, black and white)

Another potential worry for Apple over the next two years may be the need to finance expansion by its suppliers. In late 2012, there was talk Apple bailed out Sharp to the tune of $2 billion.

That followed word by Sharp it had eliminated a bottleneck in iPhone 5 displays. But improving chip supplies could even be costlier. We reported that not even $1 billion was enough for Apple to get chipmaker TSMC to focus production exclusively on Apple products.

However, we wonder if international iPhone sales are expected to “dramatically” slow, why the need to finance supplier expansion?

A third reason for Apple to crack open the checkbook sounds more plausible: the charge of ‘whitebox’ (or non-brandname) smartphones. We’ve written about this threat to Apple from China’s Coolpad, which sells an inexpensive iPhone alternative seen below for less than the device that bear’s Apple’s logo.

Yulong CoolPad N900

Misek points to Gionee and Konka, two smartphone firms producing inexpensive Android-based versions of the Samsung Galaxy 3. Production of the phones “are forcing Apple to invest in next-gen screen technology in order to differentiate,” writes the analyst.

Apple’s been written off as dead before and cooler heads have pointed to its wide lead in multiple areas.

At least Misek limits Apple’s risk to two years.

Some observers have issued forecasts that Apple will lead until 2016 and then apparently enter some Silicon Valley oblivion.

It’s a shame that Apple will need to spend some of its vast cache of profits, but no business is immune to downtimes. If the company has fallen, it is from absolutely astonishing returns to just plain better than average.

  • Share:
  • Follow:
  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1496513068 Zach Krase

    If iOS 7 doesn’t blow everyone away later this year then I’ll believe it

    • Zorvage

      Give this guy an arrow up! Honestly, Apple’s hardware is GREAT, but iOS just needs a major revamp, it merely looks the same since iPhone OS 1.

      • arkadiush14

        you are right, i think apple should adapt some main cydia tweaks that are making iOS more useful, like zephyr and so on.

      • Zorvage

        Yeah, like some sort of winterboard app store, barrel intergration, zephyr, NCsettings, auxo, just way more COSTUMIZATION

      • arkadiush14

        ncsettings is my must have cydia tweak, i;m realy looking forward to seeing this in the next iOS, and app like winterboard would be nice too.

      • pauleebe

        Agreed. Hardware is, IMO, perfect. But iOS needs an overhaul.

    • Qiren_94

      Agreed, let’s hope Jony Ive does his job well.

    • Irfan Tarique

      ios currently is a very stable and a highly capable operating system. It has a solid foundation, now it only needs to add personalization and more freedom into the platform.

    • Mohammad Ridwan

      Trust in Ive… There is still hope.. now that forstall is out.

  • Howard

    I wish the analysts at Wall Street would go away.

    • TesticularFortitude

      Most people wouldn’t consider $137 billion in cash and the best quarter ever a “rough period”. I know I don’t.

      Even worse than the analysts are the supposed bloggers who love and report on all things Apple. Instead of fighting truth to power and challenging this nonsense, they simply roll over and regurgitate it.

      Gruber and Dalrymple get a lot of flack for being fanboys, but at least they challenge the madness… They aren’t right all the time but they are more often than not.

  • pauleebe

    What goes up must come down. Apple is still a great company, even if they aren’t unanimously the best.

    • Lordthree

      This guy is living in la la land. These piper guys are wrong all the time.

    • Mr. E

      Nice profile image :)

      • pauleebe

        Why thank you! ;)

  • http://www.facebook.com/jamesheckiii James Heck III

    You lost me at “analyst”.

    And Gene Munster predicts the imminent launch of Apple TV for the 4th straight year (yawn).

    • 4p0c4lyps3

      So damn true +1

  • wonderboydave

    analyst: so it looks like your company is gonna be declining within the next two years..
    apple: really?.. challenge accepted.

  • ap3604

    Seriously?
    “It’s a shame that Apple will need to spend some of its vast cache of profits”
    It’s a shame Apple will need to spend some of its $137 billion cash reserve?
    Talk about exteme first world problems :P