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Fred Wilson, a prominent startup investor and partner of Union Square Ventures, has posted a series of predictions for 2015 and his forecast isn’t looking too good for Apple’s first new product category in years.

Wilson, who has put money in Twitter, Zynga, and other large companies in their early stages, doesn’t think the Apple Watch will be able to live up to Apple devices before it like the iPhone and iPad, both of which reshaped the consumer electronics industry.

“Another market where the reality will not live up to the hype is wearables, Wilson writes. “The Apple Watch will not be the home-run product that iPod, iPhone, and iPad have been.

“Not everyone will want to wear a computer on their wrist. Eventually, this market will be realized as the personal mesh/personal cloud, but the focus on wearables will be a bit of a head-fake and take up a lot of time, energy, and money in 2015 with not a lot of results.”

T-Mobile CEO John Legere wrote earlier this week that the Apple Watch will be huge for the industry.

Furthermore, Wilson believes the “Apple of China” Xiaomi will make an entrance into the US.

“Xiaomi will spend some of the $1.1bn they just raised coming to the US. This will bring a strong player in the non-google android sector into the US market and legitimize a ‘third mobile OS’ in the western world.”

For investors, Wilson believes Apple’s stock – which gained close to 40 percent in 2014 – will remain a great option for investors in 2015.

“Capital markets will be a mixed bag in 2015. Big tech names will continue to access capital easily, but the combination of rising rates and depressed prices for oil will bring great stress to global capital markets and there will be a noticeable flight to safety around the world. Safety used to mean gold, US treasuries, and blue chip stocks. Now it means Google, Apple, Amazon, and Facebook.”

[Fred Wilson via Business Insider]

  • Yujin

    Who cares?

    • Kurt

      More people care than care about your opinions.

  • InfinitePlusOne

    Sure like the iPhone 6plus

    • Yep and the iPhone and iPad. When will they learn? I don’t think it will be a flop but a slow adoption rate at first. Most people will buy it just because of the logo.

      • John

        You know the scary thing: You’re right.
        I was about to “troll” you or call you something while trying to blindly defend Apple but then I realised just how right you are and how (embarrassingly) I’ll pick up one of these JUST because of the logo and JUST BECAUSE I expect it wouldn be amazing, even though I know there are going to be some terrible downsides to the product/device itself.

      • Kurt

        You must be very young.

      • John

        You draw that intelligent theory because…?

      • John

        Just looked. The anti-John troll has returned.
        Bravo.

      • Kurt

        Thanks, but never saw you before.

    • Yep, not water resistant = DOA

  • Jason Baroni

    He better keep advices for startups. It only proves he knows nothing about the big dogs.

    • Rowan09

      It depends on what he calls a flop. He invested in Twitter and Zynga which was a bad idea.

      • iRy757

        Agreed. Zynga was trendy for like a year.

  • jay

    Same here don’t see the watch be the big thing with a battery live for a day it’s just not what I want! Stay with my 99$ pebble

    • John

      You know, when the first generation of the Galaxy Gear was released, it too had a battery life of a day, possibly less from memory and they were heavily criticised for this BUT I really wish people wouldn’t compare a Pebble to a fully-fledged smart watch.

      As a basic smart watch, the Pebble is wonderful but it ONLY has a black and white screen, and it doesn’t have a touch screen. I guess it really comes down to what you want out of your watch.

      • YTKN2ME

        My 5s and Pebble don’t have Apple Pay; I’ll get one.

      • Kurt

        Galaxy Gear had a day and half battery. Shows you know nothing but you keep idolizing a company. Weird.

      • Warmachine69

        the pebble is a full smartwatch which actualy has more features than android wear. Just take the smartwatch+ app (cydia version) for example, respond to text, do activator actions, weather, stocks,calender,reminders, camera controls, gps,find my iphone. And that’s just one pebble app

    • Joey_Z

      I’m staying with my pebble for now and watching how the Apple Watch will turn out to be. But remember when the first iPhone came out, it could only last a day when average cell phones were lasting 2 weeks to a month back then.

      • jay

        True never thought that way

  • Franklin Richards

    Xiaomi is to be feared as they are relatively fresh and hard to predict… apart from the blatant iPhone/iPad clones but they are rapidly moving away from that and have a lot to offer. Unlike Apple who is becoming less fresh and more predictable. Apple needs to pick up the pace before Xiaomi becomes more prominent in the west. Many of my friends in the UK who work in tech companies are looking towards Xiaomi devices already.

    • Alberto Espinal

      Coping apple, so if apple slows down they will slow down as well, they have no imagination, all they have done is copy, they haven’t showed anything for themselves

      • Guest

        Did you miss the part where I said “they are rapidly moving away from that” their latest products don’t look like Apple products anymore. They are starting to have their own design style. And have moved on to other products that Apple hasn’t even stepped into yet.

      • Joey_Z

        It doesn’t matter how many times people say “they are rapidly moving away from that”. Xiaomi isn’t.

      • Franklin Richards

        Know what… I just saw their up and coming Mi4 and well I am going to eat my words. But it’s China so once Apple stops making the cool hip things then it’ll just leech designs from someone else. Something shunned upon in the west and something seemingly acceptable in the east.

    • Kr00

      Xiaomi won’t be a threat to Apple, more a threat to Samsung, as they’re following the same model as Samsung did when they took to the tech industry. Originally the Samsung parent company sold rice and grain. Xiaomi are competing for the same customers as Samsung and the rest. Those who choose their devices on price alone. No loyalty in that marketplace, whatsoever. It’ll be a race to the bottom.

      • John

        …and before I commented, I should have scrolled down and seen a post that is exactly like mine, expect from three hours earlier.

        Sorry, I didn’t mean to copy what you wrote.

    • John

      So what you’re saying is they are the Chinese version of Samesung … A company who copied Apple and then when they had enough cash, decides to flood other markets with products that are “rapidly moving away from that” — Sorry mate, you haven’t convinced me.

      • Franklin Richards

        Yeah I did say I ate my words after. To be fair they do have some nice TVs…

    • LAGISSUEZ

      No offense but who cares about fresh when you can have refined? Do you want a brand new Ford Mustang or a 911 Carrera?

      • M_thoroughbred

        That depends if the mustang is a cobra gt500 lol.

      • VitoM

        It’s still a Ford. Not yet Porsche.

      • Franklin Richards

        Wouldn’t mind either to be honest.

  • nonchalont

    The apple watch looks horrible in my opinion. The moto 360 watch looks like the nicest wearable I’ve seen …again, that’s just my opinion. Like Fred Wilson’s.

    • Sleaka J

      The Moto 360 is the best looking smart watch currently by far, hampered by it’s abysmal battery life and performance.

    • Chayuth

      Yes, Moto 360 does looks better and should be nice, unless it runs Android. That’s enough to ruin all aspects of experience. Also, Apple Watch will be flooded with hundreds thousand of apps which make it actually usable, not just another dumb watch in the market. How many is Moto 360 app so far?

    • John

      With Apple’s focus on everything circular since iOS 7 was released, I am sort of glad they didn’t make the watch face a circle.

      • Kurt

        If the Apple Watch was circular you would be commenting how you are glad it is circular. You clearly have no true opinion of your own. “Think Different”

    • ck125

      Agree, the moto 360 and even the LG g watch R look better, more high end compared to the apple watch and cost less too. If only android wear worked with IOS.

  • ali_plus

    For me it all depends on price which will play very important role.

    • Kr00

      Not everything cheap is good. If there is no quality, you may as well keep your wallet open for when the product fails and you have to buy another cheap device. Just as it was when PCs came along. The cheapest always dies first. In 30 years I’ve only ever bought 3 Macs. The last two still run today. I gave away my original Macintosh. (Punches self in the head).

      • therealjjohnson

        He didnt say anything about being cheap. He said he price will pay an important role. If the price goes up by $100 each model you’re looking at a $500 watch that would need to be replaced every year or so. People don’t buy watches like that. Price will play an important role. That doesn’t mean it has to cost $99 but as the price goes up the amount of frequent buyers goes down.

      • Kr00

        Xiaomi are nothing but cheap. Sorry you missed the point entirely.

  • Macdemon

    Says the silly man who has invested his money in the wrong product and feels bitter about it.

    The Apple Watch will take the market BY STORM, and I predict HUGE queues outside Apple stores and everyone rushes to buy it.

    • George

      teens wont buy this period.

  • Kr00

    The Apple watch may not have the same market effect as the original iPhone did, but just on shear curiosity alone, it’ll sell ship loads. In a practical sense, I can see the benefits for my situation as a mobile businessman, as long as it’s durable enough to handle my environment.

  • Sleaka J

    I refuse to buy any smart watch until battery life improves by a significant amount. I’ve replaced the battery in my current non-smart watch once in 9-ish years. Now I don’t expect that kind of battery life from a smart watch, but I do expect to charge it only as often as I charge my phone (once every 4-5 days).

    • Chris Gaunt

      I with you. I truly believe the biggest factor will come down to battery life. But not just of the watch. How will being connected to your phone impact the battery life of that also? With what I define as heavy use my iPhone 6 Plus is usually at 30% battery by the end of the day with zero charging once taken of my night stand.

  • Jeff Maxwell

    Oh no! You mean some dude nobody’s ever heard of has an opinion based on nothing but his “spidey senses” published in an obscure website about a product that hasn’t even been released yet? I’m sure Apple is quaking in their boots.

  • Watch as iSheeps prove him wrong. The iWatch will sell like crazy.

    • Mozaik

      So much of Mature comment my friend , you are becoming worst troll.

      • John

        Becoming?
        You haven’t been here long if you think he’s becoming.

        The problem with this depressing creature is that it thrives off reactions and flaps off with every response. One should only acknowledge creatures like this who are able to provide substance and merit to their responses.

        Sadly, and I honestly don’t mean this negatively, this one has never been able too.

      • Kr00

        Did you mean “faps off with every response”‘ coz that would suit him down to a tee.

      • Why so butthurt? You do realise many buy Apple mainly ’cause of the branding? That’s what an iSheep is. Not saying all Apple buyers are iSheeps…

      • Slifur

        Just ignore that guy. His a samsung fan lurking around apple blogs.

  • ck125

    I don’t think it will be a flop, because it is an apple product so people will buy it regardless, but I think its not going to be near the success they think it will be. With phones now a days, you see less and less people wearing a watch, and especially for the $350+ price tag, its not going to be a sure buy for most people.

    • Darthque

      I agree (though I’ll probably still buy it, who am I fooling ). I think the price tab is a bit steep and maybe it does a little too much. I mean do u really need to listen to music on ur watch?? I wish they made a pared down $250 version…

      • ck125

        Agree. For me I don’t need all the bells and whistles, just want to be able to see notifications and whether they are important or not and need dealt with immediately without always having to pull my phone out. Kind of wish they had a cheaper version. If only pebble made a beefed up version with a touchscreen and everything ha.

  • I have to 100% agree with him actually. I also think it was designed poorly and announcing but not releasing before Christmas was a bad business move. Who even has a lot of interest in these anymore? The tech blogs that will end up with free ones to test? lol

    • Kr00

      Yes, we all take seriously commenters who end their statements with “lol”.

      • Sooo that apparently means I don’t have to take your comment seriously either then?

      • Kr00

        You do know what “quotation” marks are for don’t you or do you need it explained to you? Simon says, go get an education.

  • George

    well duh, it looks like some pile of garbage toy watch you can buy at a dollar store.

  • JoshuaHulgan

    The Apple Watch will probably be a limited hit. It’s too early to tell.
    But Xiaomi will avoid the US like the plague (if they have any sense) because Apple will completely string them up in court and they know it.

  • Jeffrey

    I think the first generation will only sell because it’s an Apple product and people want Apple products. I guess it will be the third most sold wearable just because of that. If the second generation will be better designed it will probably take first place. For the first generation though, I doubt it…

  • therealjjohnson

    Define flop. Will it not make millions upon millions of dollars?

  • Kyle McNulty – Mclovin341

    I’m just praying that it will be able to be jailbroken or allow something on iPhones Cydia to customise the watch further..

    • Warmachine69

      smartwatch+ will probably add support for the apple watch